New Publication in the Journal of Applied Econometrics

Created on May 11, 2026

2026

I am very happy to share that my latest research, “Reassessing the Cross-Sectional Fiscal Multiplier: Evidence From U.S. Defense Procurement, 1966–2019,” is now published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics! Proud to add my voice to a vivid and intense academic debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy.

This research revisits and extends the seminal analysis by Nakamura and Steinsson (American Economic Review, 2014). By harmonizing data from the Defense Contract Action Data System (DCADS) and USAspending.gov, I reconstructed a comprehensive state-level dataset covering over 50 years of U.S. defense-related spending.

Key Contributions:

  • New Harmonized Data for Researchers: I am making available a harmonized state-level spending series of defense-related procurement in the U.S., spanning 1966–2019, under different data aggregation choices.
  • Updated Multipliers: While narrow replications yield slightly lower multipliers, the estimates increase when incorporating more recent fiscal episodes, particularly those where monetary policy was constrained at the zero lower bound.
  • Methodological Validation: The paper assesses the stability of cross-sectional estimates using the diagnostic proposed by Canova (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024). Despite recent scrutiny of cross-sectional approaches, results indicate that state-level responses remain relatively stable, especially when accounting for dynamic persistence.

📖 Read the full open-access paper here.

📊 Access the harmonized dataset and replication package here.