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Peer-Reviewed Publications
2026
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Journal of Applied Econometrics Reassessing the Cross‐Sectional Fiscal Multiplier: Evidence From U.S. Defense Procurement, 1966–2019
Gianluca Pallante
May 2026
This paper revisits the empirical analysis of Nakamura and Steinsson (2014). I reconstructed and extended the original dataset to cover the period 1966–2019, harmonizing two major sources of data: the Defense Contract Action Data System (DCADS) and USAspending.gov. I discuss how to aggregate these contract-level data to better capture spending more directly tied to domestic stimulus. Estimated multipliers are slightly lower in narrow replications but increase when incorporating later fiscal episodes. I also assess the validity and stability of cross-sectional estimates. While some heterogeneity exists, dispersion in state-level responses remains within reasonable boundaries, especially when accounting for dynamic persistence.
2025
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Journal of Financial Stability Robust-less-fragile: Tackling systemic risk and financial contagion in a macro agent-based model
Gianluca Pallante, Mattia Guerini, Mauro Napoletano, and Andrea Roventini
Feb 2025
2024
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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Calibration and validation of macroeconomic simulation models by statistical causal search
Mario Martinoli, Alessio Moneta, and Gianluca Pallante
Dec 2024
2023
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Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states
Gianluca Pallante, Emanuele Russo, and Andrea Roventini
Oct 2023
2022
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Identification of Structural VAR Models via Independent Component Analysis: A Performance Evaluation Study
Alessio Moneta and Gianluca Pallante
Nov 2022
Working Papers
2024
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Creating Jobs Out of the Green: The Employment Effects of the Energy Transition
Elisabetta Cappa, Francesco Lamperti, and Gianluca Pallante
2024
A rapid transition towards renewable energy sources is crucial to address climate change and improve local energy independence. However, the acceptability of this transition often faces resistance due to concerns about potential job-losses in the fossil-intensive sectors, while the employment potential of renewable energy technologies remains unclear. In this study, we address this concern by employing a novel and detailed geolocalized dataset of energy power units across four technologies and three decades, to examine theemployment impacts of renewable energy investments in four large European countries. To mitigate for the possible non-random allocation of renewable energy technologies, we leverage the physical potential of each region in relation to renewable energy sources, to isolate its exposure to technology-specific investments. We find that the deployment of renewable energy plants has a positive and long-lasting impact on employment. Our central estimates suggest that 1 MW of new renewable energy installed capacity creates around 40 jobs in 7 years locally, indicating that 1 Million USD invested in renewable energy technologies generates approximately 15 jobs over the same time frame. These estimates are mostly driven by the effects generated by the solar and wind installations on the construction sector. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneities across regional features, where rural and low-income areas are the ones experiencing the largest employment effect from renewable energy deployment. Overall, our findings suggest that green energy investments can constitute as a strategic asset to spur local jobs and encourage rural development.
Work in Progress
2026
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Beyond Carbon Pricing: Evaluating Policy Mixes for a Macro-Financially Stable Transition
Weiwei Bendixen, Gianluca Pallante, Francesco Lamperti, and Andrea Roventini
2026
In preparation.
2025
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Navigating Climate-Induced Systemic Risk: Insights from an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model
Gianluca Pallante, Mattia Guerini, Francesco Lamperti, Mauro Napoletano, and Andrea Roventini
2025
In preparation.